Which NBA free agents will make the biggest impact with their decisions?
The league's rules have made extensions so favorable for veterans during a period where salaries have risen faster than the cap, so 2023 won't feature the star power or depth of past or future free agent classes. Last year, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant signed extensions that took them out of this summer's free agency class along with Patrick Beverley, Malcolm Brogdon, Clint Capela, Dorian Finney-Smith, Aaron Gordon and Marcus Smart.
Still, a handful of stars will be available when the NBA's free agency officially opens for business on Thursday at 6 p.m. ET (Players and teams can agree to contracts during this moratorium period, but can't complete them until July 6.)
All-Stars Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine are the top players sure to be available, while Kyrie Irving of the Brooklyn Nets could change up free agency by declining his $36.9 million player option before Wednesday's deadline.
Beyond the stars and restricted free agents (headlined by Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton) is a group of useful role players whose decisions in the coming days could help shape the race for the 2023 title.
Here's a look at this summer's most important free agents:
The player option decisions
James Harden | G | Philadelphia 76ers
Like Irving, Harden also has until Wednesday to decide on a player option. Because Harden is already making more than the maximum salary (his option is for $47.4 million), this decision really comes down to how the two sides want to structure his next contract.
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported last week that Harden is heading toward exercising the option and adding a short-term extension with Philadelphia in the wake of his February trade to the 76ers.
Kyrie Irving | PG | Brooklyn Nets
All eyes in the NBA are on Irving's decision over the next few days, both for how it will shape free agency and how it might affect the future of Brooklyn teammate Kevin Durant. Because only a handful of teams will have enough space to match Irving's $36.9 million player option, declining it likely won't allow Irving to command more on the open market. However, it opens up the nightmare scenario for the Nets if Irving signs elsewhere and leaves Brooklyn with nothing in return.
That threat could help Irving find a trade to a desired destination if he and the Nets are unable to agree on a new contract.
The max free agents
Bradley Beal | SG | Washington Wizards
In Beal's case, a $36.4 million player option is much more certain to be declined. Even if Beal simply re-signs with the Wizards, he can increase his 2022-23 salary to the projected max of $42.7 million. Per Wojnarowski, Beal is very likely to decline the option and re-sign with Washington on a five-year deal worth a projected $248 million that would take him through age 33.
Zach LaVine | SG | Chicago Bulls
Because LaVine's last contract paid him like the starter he was rather than the All-Star he became, an extension was only realistic had the Bulls used cap space to renegotiate his contract rather than add Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan last summer. That's forced Chicago to sweat out LaVine's unrestricted free agency, though the team's ability to offer a fifth year (taking LaVine through age 32) provides a significant edge as the Bulls aim to re-sign him.
The top restricted free agents
Deandre Ayton | C | Phoenix Suns
After the Suns passed on an extending Ayton last fall, they now face a tough decision. They will have to match a max-type offer sheet to him in restricted free agency if they're unable to work out a mutually agreeable sign-and-trade that yields a replacement.
Ayton remains one of the NBA's great enigmas. Is he the multitalented center who provided a matchup edge for the Suns during their 2021 Finals run, or simply a product of the favorable environment alongside Chris Paul and Devin Booker?
The answer probably lies somewhere in between.
Ayton has shown more ability to stay on the court in the crucible of the playoffs than most 7-footers but his value is limited by the ease of finding contributors there. That could be reflected in free agency after the Detroit Pistons added center Jalen Duren in Thursday's NBA draft potentially removed the most likely contender for Ayton's services.
Miles Bridges | F | Charlotte Hornets
A breakthrough season for Bridges, who averaged a career-high 20.2 PPG, was well-timed for him to hit restricted free agency.
Suitors can feel good that Bridges' breakout season wasn't the product of any shooting luck, as his 3-point percentage declined to 33% after he hit 40% in 2020-21. Instead, Bridges showed massive growth creating offense for himself and others, something that's likely to carry over at age 24.
Given Bridges' ability to play either forward spot, he fits just about anywhere and would be my top target in free agency after the max players.
Collin Sexton | SG | Cleveland Cavaliers
During 2020-21, Sexton ranked 18th in the NBA in scoring at 24.3 PPG. Of the 17 players ahead of him, 16 have been All-Stars, most perennially. Sexton accomplished that during a season where he turned 22 and typically players like that don't hit free agency.
But there is debate about Sexton being better suited as a microwave scorer off the bench like former Cleveland teammate Jordan Clarkson. In fairness, Sexton has already reached a higher level as a scorer. He pushed his usage near 30% in 2020-21 with above-average efficiency. The other sixth men he's often compared to -- Jamal Crawford and Lou Williams -- didn't hit that level until their late 20s at the earliest.
Sexton's free agency is complicated by how well the Cavaliers played in his absence after suffering a season-ending meniscus tear early last season. As a 6-foot-1 shooting guard, Sexton presents inevitable defensive challenges. Still, his scoring potential could lead to a payday soon.
Anfernee Simons | G | Portland Trail Blazers
Simons took full advantage of teammate Damian Lillard's injury to demonstrate that he's more than just the off-ball threat he was in 2020-21. Simons, who didn't turn 23 until earlier this month, got the keys to the Portland offense with Lillard sidelined and averaged 22.0 PPG and 5.5 APG with impressive efficiency (.600 true shooting percentage) in 30 starts.
The Blazers trading CJ McCollum to the New Orleans Pelicans opens the door to Simons taking over the McCollum role-playing off Lillard as a starting shooting guard and backing him up at the point.
Simons is all but certain to return to Portland. The question is just how close his new contract will be to the max for players with fewer than seven years of experience: a projected $30.5 million.
The best gettable free agent
Jalen Brunson | PG | Dallas Mavericks
It's telling that the free agent drawing the most attention leading up to July 1 is a player who had come off the bench until last season and is entering his prime years (Brunson will turn 26 in August). Moving into the starting lineup alongside Luka Doncic, Brunson demonstrated he can be effective in a hybrid role initiating offense and spotting up around another creator (he's a 37% career 3-point shooter).
Perhaps most importantly, Brunson improved his performance in the playoffs. He averaged 21.6 PPG after a disappointing first-round series against the LA Clippers in 2021, which left observers wondering whether he could maintain his value against a top-tier defense.
Although the Mavericks have consistently indicated that re-signing Brunson is a priority, he's got a natural suitor in the New York Knicks, who recently hired his father (longtime NBA guard Rick Brunson) as an assistant coach -- the elder Brunson's third stop working for Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau.
New York's moves on draft night moved the Knicks one more cap-clearing deal away from being able to offer Brunson $100-plus million over four years, a deal Dallas would have to think hard about beating.
The veteran role players
Nicolas Batum | F | LA Clippers
Since being waived by the Charlotte Hornets with two years left on his big-money contract, Batum has transformed his reputation into the kind of versatile wing every contender needs. Batum has played two seasons for the Clippers at the minimum and slightly more than minimum, while hitting 40% of his 3s while playing strong defense across multiple positions.
Batum is set to cash in, either by re-signing with the Clippers (who can now offer a multiyear deal starting at more than $10 million using early Bird rights) or heading elsewhere for a team's midlevel exception.
Otto Porter Jr. | F | Golden State Warriors
Nabbing Porter for the veteran's minimum last summer ultimately might have been the difference in the Warriors winning the title. Most of the other high-profile minimum signings for the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers flopped, but Porter's shooting, defensive versatility and high basketball IQ made him a perfect fit with Golden State. He ended up starting the last three games of the NBA Finals -- all Warriors wins.
Now, Golden State may have to pay more to bring back Porter. The Warriors are limited to offering 120% of his minimum salary using non-Bird rights but could also give him their taxpayer midlevel exception, which would be costly in terms of luxury tax -- particularly if Golden State also gives Gary Payton II a raise using Early Bird rights.
P.J. Tucker | F/C | Miami Heat
Less than a year ago, it was Tucker's addition at the trade deadline that helped lift the Milwaukee Bucks to the championship. The Bucks passed on bringing Tucker back, allowing him to leave for the rival Heat, where he again played a key role as Miami got within a game of the Finals. Tucker declined a $7.35 million player option and will hope for what might be his last big payday at age 35.
The Heat can offer a 20% raise using non-Bird rights. Would another contender be willing to use the projected $10.3 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception for Tucker? We'll find out soon.
The starting centers
Kevon Looney | C | Golden State Warriors
Although Porter replaced Looney in Golden State's starting five to close the Finals, the veteran center -- somehow still just 26 years old -- remained a huge part of the Warriors' triumph. With other teams downsizing in the middle, Looney wreaked havoc on the offensive glass, pulling down nearly one-sixth of Golden State's playoff misses while on the court all by himself.
Looney is versatile enough defensively to avoid getting played off the floor, and would be difficult for the Warriors to replace. That should give him leverage for a raise off last year's $5.2 million salary.
Jusuf Nurkic | C | Portland Trail Blazers
Portland's deal for Jerami Grant set up nicely for Nurkic's chances of re-signing with the Blazers. Although the team could still hypothetically create around $10 million in cap space, Portland would get more spending power by re-signing Nurkic and staying over the cap to use the midlevel exception instead. Before the Blazers shut him down at the All-Star break due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot, Nurkic was averaging a double-double (15.0 PPG, 11.1 RPG) with the best scoring efficiency (.586 TS%) of his career.
Mitchell Robinson | C | New York Knicks
Conversely to Nurkic and the Blazers, the Knicks planning to use cap space makes it more likely Robinson returns. Because he's an unrestricted free agent coming off a deal signed as a second-round pick that paid him the minimum salary last season, Robinson has a paltry $1.8 million cap hold.
New York can keep just that amount on the books while signing a free agent, then exceed the cap to pay Robinson any amount using full Bird rights. Robinson started a career-high 62 of his 72 games last season while shooting 76% from the field on a diet of primarily dunks -- highest in NBA history for a player with more than 250 shot attempts, per Stathead.com.
NBA free agency 2022 - The most impactful decisions of the summer - ESPN
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