So will you eat crow in the event they do sign one of the four to a deal?
I don’t understand your claim of they have way more needs than SS. The bullpen has been built on the fly for years with tons of success. There isn’t a glaring need to devote massive resources to that area, especially with all of the solid to quality arms already in the upper levels of the minors, and the return of Heuer, Alozay, Marquez, etc. We would only need to devote money to several major league deals in free agency to shore up the pen. Even if we went out and bought a closer, setup man, and middle reliever, why waste 30-50 mil on players with such volatile profiles that usually don’t workout on big money deals? Seems like a misallocation of resources, and straight up mismanagement when you have a glut of internal options.
I think we need an ace caliber starting pitcher, but other than that, maybe fishing in the middle of the market is a valuable upgrade, but I’m not sure if its worth the money. Continue to develop Steele and Thompson, hope for better health from Stroman and Hendricks, and use use an internal option for the 5th starter. Kilian should be up to the task. Wesneski is already at AAA, Assad has been solid since his promotion to AAA and Wicks, Herz, and company are already at AA. We have internal options coming in the upper echelons of the minors.
Triantos isn’t a SS anymore. He’s barely logged any playing time there since he was drafted. He’s also at Low A. Made looks like he will stick defensively (pretty impressive defender imo), and his bat has started to look solid as well. However, he is at high A and struggling since his promotion. I’m super high on Hernandez, but the kid hasn’t even made it to a minor league club; he’s at complex ball. There is actually more up the middle talent then this, however they’re still far away/injured/ struggling. If we get a couple major leaguers out of these guys, then we beat the odds. As to your point of Morel playing SS, most scouts consider him backup caliber at that position, not someone you want to roll with everyday. I’m a big fan of Nico, but he’s had trouble staying on the field thus far, so I can’t pencil him in as the everyday SS just yet.
With our glut of outfield prospects in the upper minors (plus Alcantara having to be added to the 40 man this offseason), PCA at high A and mashing since return from his wrist injury, and Happ and Suzuki already on the roster, its highly unlikely we spend resources on our outfield, unless a Harper or Soto level talent becomes available. We have Nelsen Velazquez, Darius Hill, Narisco Crook, Alexander Canario (also already on the 40 man) and top prospect Brennan Davis all fighting for spots, with PCA soon to be added to the mix. Then there is the beginnings of another wave developing behind them.
1B seems like an unlikely spot to upgrade seeing as devoting tons of resources to that position for non elite level players never seems to achieve the desired result. Maybe the cubs throw money at Josh Bell or someone of that ilk. However, with Matt Mervis at AAA, and Bryce Ball hitting well at AA, combined with the fact the cubs have been rotating players through the position the last couple of years, shows me that they don’t want to devote lots of resources to that position. They appear to prefer the route of filling it with a more competent defender from another part of the diamond, or simply letting the odd man out play there. We’ve seen this with Willson and Wisdom getting a ton of play there, and I believe I saw McKinstry there as well.
We could look to upgrade 3B or C, however outside of resigning Willson there isn’t a legit upgrade available at C. I think there is more to a reunion with Contreras then some people believe. Now that the QO is (likely) attached, teams will have to significantly overpay for Willson, AND lose draft compensation. Maybe the cubs aren’t willing to go in the overpay range for him, nor should they. But if the trade deadline is any indication, Willson may not have the market he and the team originally thought he’d have. There is a universe where Willson resigns, and potentially for what we would have considered a bargain in the summer.
I think if the cubs are signing one of these SS’s they accept that the player will likely have to move off the position at some point in time. At that point, they are hoping one of our extremely young SS in the minors is ready to take over, or if Nico is aging well and not constantly getting hurt then he gets the nod. This is also a reason why they value positional flexibility. In some matchups, they may be able to field their best lineup by moving the SS addition to 3B, Hoerner at SS, and (Morel, Mads, etc) is playing 2nd. In addition, SS are the players most likely to move off of their position and still retain some value in the field, hence intelligent teams prioritize spending on them in free agency vs corner spots or bullpens.
The young players you mentioned are still A) too far away from the majors to have a significant impact on your annual contract and roster decisions B) carry massive risk
C) can be moved off of SS to play a bevy of other positions if their bats come along and player X (the SS the cubs sign in this scenario) is still at SS.
To further hit on point C, so many players are initially drafted as SSs and later have to move off the position. Even guys who make it to the show. Unless were preventing a GG defender from lining up at SS, having a blue chip all star caliber player in their mid to upper 20s at the position is the way to go, and a better allocation of resources than throwing money at the bullpen like the Rockies when we’ve proven that is unnecessary.
This is also the area the FO has shown the most interest in sacrificing future payroll. To think that the FO is not even interested in this move due to prospects at A ball and a bullpen they’ve built time and time again with pieces from the island of misfit toys is frankly an untenable position when put under the microscope. Even if they agree with you about the bullpen, there is still money to go full Rockies on the pen, and one of the 4 SS
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