Buyer Beware: Which NFL Free Agents Should Teams Avoid in 2023?
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With Wild Card Weekend in the rearview, only eight NFL teams still have something left to play for. The focus for the rest of the league's 24 teams is now fully on the offseason, which will offer plenty of chances for these eliminated clubs to make improvements and patch holes via free agency.
While there is a great deal of talent set to become available on the open market, there are some players whom teams will want to think twice about signing to long-term deals.
Whether it's because a veteran is seemingly past his prime, a young player is poised to be overpaid based on a limited body of work or some other concerning factor, clubs are at a high risk of getting burnt if they decide to dole out big contracts to one of the following free agents.
Edge Jadeveon Clowney
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Jadeveon Clowney has been hopping around the league since his rookie contract ended after the 2018 campaign. He's poised to join his fourth team in the last five years after a two-year stint with the Cleveland Browns appears to have come to an acrimonious end.
Clowney was sent home from a practice and ruled out of the season finale after venting his frustrations with Cleveland's defensive strategy.
The 29-year-old still sporadically displays the ability to competently pass rush, but he had just two sacks all last season. That was his lowest total for any campaign in which he appeared in at least 12 games and a significant drop-off from the nine he had in 2021.
It was rare to see him create pressure this year. He had just 12 pressures and recorded a meager two quarterback knockdowns after generating 32 pressures and 10 knockdowns a season ago.
Injuries have begun to take their toll on the nine-year veteran. He hasn't played a full season since 2017 and has missed 16 contests over the last three years. Clowney only logged 493 defensive snaps in 2022, the third-fewest of his career.
Despite these limitations, edge-rushing remains at a premium in the NFL. Clowney's ability to contribute in that department when he's healthy, as well as serve as a solid run-stopper, will convince a club to ink him to a contract likely worth at least $10 million for the 2023 campaign.
While that decision could pay off if 2014's top overall pick can stay on the field, it would be unwise to make a long-term bet on the aging edge-rusher. Clowney would be a decent pickup on a one-year deal, but giving out a multiyear contract could come back to haunt a club.
TE Mike Gesicki
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The Miami Dolphins' head-scratching move to franchise-tag Mike Gesicki last offseason did not work out. The tight end followed up a career-best 73-catch, 780-yard campaign by tallying only 362 yards on 32 receptions in 2022.
Now that it's all but certain Miami will let Gesicki walk in free agency, teams should be leery of signing the athletic but limited tight end to a long-term deal.
While the 6'6", 247-pounder has shown the ability to come up with big plays—especially in the red area, as evidenced by his 18 touchdown catches in the last four years—he's far from a complete player at a position that demands a varied skill set to be a true asset.
Gesicki has been more of an oversized slot receiver than a true tight end since coming into the league as a second-rounder in 2018. He's able to create mismatches and reel in contested catches, but his blocking leaves much to be desired.
Miami failed to maximize Gesicki's abilities in an offense that became loaded with pass-catching talent in 2022. This lack of fit was reflected in his Pro Football Focus grade, which plummeted to a 59.9. It was his lowest mark since he earned a 50.2 as a rookie.
Any club that signs Gesicki has to be mindful of what the Penn State product can and can't do. He'll be a much better fit in an organization that will consistently deploy him as a route-runner rather than ask him to stay inline as a blocker, but the 27-year-old will likely get overpaid again for this contributions.
RB Josh Jacobs
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Josh Jacobs took full advantage of the Las Vegas Raiders' decision to not pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. Playing for a new contract in 2022, the running back had a career year in which he amassed a league-leading 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns—tied for the fifth-most in football—on 340 totes.
Although the 24-year-old will be a hot commodity on the open market as the reigning rushing champion, teams may not get the value they are expecting from him over the life of his next deal.
Second contracts for a running back have been historically risky. Players such as Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley and plenty of others have fallen off drastically after cashing big paydays.
It's rare that running backs can sustain elite levels of play while fulfilling a featured role year after year. Injuries to these workhorse backs are common, evidenced by the likes of the last two rushing champions. Jonathan Taylor (2021) and Derrick Henry (2020) both missed extensive action the season after claiming their crowns.
Jacobs has seen heavy usage since entering the league as the No. 24 overall pick in 2019.
While 2022 marked the first time he's seen more than 63 percent of Vegas' offensive snaps, he's logged at least 262 touches, including a whopping 393 this year, in all four of his seasons. He was on the field for 821 offensive plays (75 percent) this past season, well above his previous career high of 625.
Jacobs has proved he's in the upper echelon of running backs, but it remains to be seen just how long he can maintain his spot. Any team betting Jacobs will remain a top-flight back for years to come will be taking a major risk.
QB Baker Mayfield
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Teams desperate for a quarterback this offseason may end up talking themselves into Baker Mayfield.
It's understandable why a club that fails to secure a prized rookie prospect would consider kicking the tires on 2018's top overall pick. Mayfield just wrapped up a respectable five-game stint with Los Angeles Rams, a showing even more impressive when you consider he was thrust into the starting lineup just days after being signed off the scrap heap.
While Mayfield looked competent at times while completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 850 yards and four touchdowns with just two interceptions, it's doubtful he'll ever emerge into anything more than average passer after having multiple opportunities during his half-decade in the NFL.
Prior to reemerging with the Rams, Mayfield earned the starting job for the Carolina Panthers to open the 2022 campaign. The 27-year-old went just 1-5 in six starts while completing a mere 57.8 percent of his throws for 1,313 yards and six touchdowns against six interceptions before being released in early December.
Mayfield had his best season in 2020 when he guided the Cleveland Browns to an 11-5 record. Although the team made the playoffs, the quarterback had a completion rate under 63 percent and only racked up 3,563 yards through the air.
Given his accuracy issues, propensity for turnovers and career record of just 31-38, it's hard to envision a scenario in which Mayfield serves as anything more than a stopgap option going forward. Considering the raise in contract value his decent showing in L.A. has likely commanded, Mayfield's costs won't match his production.
DT Daron Payne
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Daron Payne will be a hot target for teams seeking to bulk up the interior of their defensive line this offseason. The Washington Commanders received plenty of interest in him leading up to the Nov. 1 trade deadline, but the franchise ultimately opted not to trade its defensive tackle playing out the last year of his rookie deal.
Retaining Payne could be an option for the Commanders, but it will be an expensive one and perhaps a poor decision.
Payne has been a quality run-stopper since entering the league as the No. 13 overall pick in 2018. He's racked up nearly 300 tackles in that span, including 40 tackles for loss. There's little doubt that the 25-year-old will continue to contribute at a high level in that department, but his blossoming pass-rushing skills are what any team doling out a huge contract in free agency will be hoping to see more of.
The 6'2", 320-pounder just finished a career year in terms of getting after the quarterback. He generated at least 25 pressures for the second straight season while recording a team-high 11.5 sacks, 6.5 more than his previous high mark set as a rookie.
Those numbers are unquestionably strong—only two interior D-linemen had more sacks in 2022—but Payne has struggled to make his mark on the game at a reliable rate.
It took 908 defensive snaps for him to reach those lofty figures. AL.com's Mark Inabinett noted that no other interior D-lineman logged a higher portion of his team's defensive snaps than Payne (87 percent) and only Christian Wilkins played more overall snaps at the position this year.
And there were plenty of plays in which the Alabama product disappeared.
That inconsistency is reflected in Payne's PFF grade, which was just 58.4 in 2022. The site lists that mark as below-average, and Payne has never earned a score higher than a 68.2 (considered "average") in any of his five seasons.
Given that his next contract will likely be worth at least what Commanders teammate Jonathan Allen signed before the 2021 campaign—a four-year deal valued at $72 million—it could be quite expensive to lock up a defensive tackle who flashes greatness but never puts it all together.
Buyer Beware: Which NFL Free Agents Should Teams Avoid in 2023? - Bleacher Report
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