Projecting the Top MLB Free-Agent Contracts for the Next 5 Offseasons
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Major League Baseball's free-agency spending spree has been all sorts of wild over the past two years.
Corey Seager's 10-year, $325 million deal was the biggest of the $3.22 billion in money agreed to during last offseason. This winter, Aaron Judge, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts have raked in a combined total of $940 million of the $3.6 billion (and counting) that teams have spent.
What's next, though?
Who are the players hitting free agency over the course of the next half-decade most likely to sign massive contracts?
We've identified the one hitter and the one pitcher in each of the next five free-agency classes most likely to sign a contract in excess of $250 million.
Total money is the goal here, not average annual salary. For instance, reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2027 season. If he continues to pitch well, he'll surely sign a big contract. But he'll be 32 years old that offseason, while Reds flamethrower Hunter Greene will only be 28. Who knows what contracts will look like by then, but that's young enough to potentially sign a 10-year deal worth a whole lot of money.
Players are listed in chronological order by free-agency class.
Top Free-Agent Hitter After 2023: Shohei Ohtani
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Considering we're already talking about the possibility of a $500 million contract for Shohei Ohtani, the only question here was whether we should label MLB's unicorn as the top hitter or top pitcher of next year's free-agency class.
If Ohtani does end up getting a deal worth half a billion dollars, it would probably be an incentive-heavy agreement similar to the massive extension Julio Rodríguez signed with Seattle this past summer.
Rodríguez's contract is $210 million guaranteed but could be worth up to $470 million based upon how he fares in AL MVP votes over the course of the next six seasons. Any incentives in an Ohtani deal would figure to be tied to innings pitched, as a means of protecting the franchise from the possibility that he stops pitching and just becomes a DH at some point down the line.
Even if he was just a hitter, though, Ohtani would still be the highest-paid free agent next winter, and by a considerable margin.
Over the past two seasons, he's triple-slashing .265/.364/.554 with 80 home runs and 37 stolen bases. Aaron Judge is the only player with more homers (102) since the beginning of 2021, and the only players with at least 600 plate appearances and a higher slugging percentage are Judge, Bryce Harper and Yordan Alvarez.
Factor in the arm which has produced a 2.70 ERA and an 11.4 K/9 over the past two seasons, and it's just about a guarantee that his annual salary will be the highest in MLB history.
The 2021 AL MVP is already making $30 million in what will be his final season of arbitration eligibility. We should see $50-plus million per year for what basically amounts to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (80 HR, .539 slugging over the past two seasons) and Corbin Burnes (2.71 ERA, 11.6 K/9) in one body.
Other Candidates: Amed Rosario, Ian Happ, Manny Machado (player option)
Top Free-Agent Pitcher After 2023: Julio Urías
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It's a real toss-up here between Aaron Nola and Julio Urías.
The ace from Philadelphia has made 143 starts over the past five seasons with a 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a 10.4 K/9. Per FanGraphs, he has been the fifth-most valuable pitcher during that half-decade, trailing only Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and teammate Zack Wheeler.
But Urías has been quite impressive in own right, boasting marks of 2.61 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 during that same time. He simply missed most of 2018 while recovering from shoulder surgery and didn't become a full-time starter for the Dodgers until 2020. As a result, he hasn't logged anywhere near as many innings as Nola has.
The reason we're going with Urías, though, is the age gap.
Nola turns 30 in June and should have no problem getting a deal on par with the six-year, $162 million contract the Yankees gave Carlos Rodón this offseason. However, Urías will turn just 27 in August and could be the rarely seen free-agent pitcher who gets an offer for seven or more years.
He'll need to have another big season, though.
Urías has fantastic career numbers and finished seventh and third in the NL Cy Young Award votes in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Those were the only seasons thus far in which he pitched at least 80 innings, though, so there may be some hesitation to strike a long-term deal if he either struggles a bit in 2023 or endures another considerable injury.
Other Candidates: Aaron Nola, Jack Flaherty, Martín Pérez
Top Free-Agent Hitter After 2024: Juan Soto
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After giving up CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Luke Voit, James Wood, Robert Hassell and Jarlin Susana to get Juan Soto (and Josh Bell) at the 2022 trade deadline, the San Diego Padres figure to be very motivated to sign Soto to a long-term extension before he reaches free agency.
As things currently stand, though, he is slated to become the Aaron Judge of the post-2024 free-agency class.
Let's not forget, the Washington Nationals reportedly offered Soto a 15-year, $440 million deal back in mid-July, and that wasn't enough to get him to remain in D.C. He's going to get more than $30 million per year, likely for more than a decade.
And why shouldn't he?
Soto turned 24 this past October, and he has been one of the best hitters in the majors since his arrival as a 19-year-old rookie in 2018.
He had a (by his standards) down year in 2022, and still hit 27 home runs while drawing an MLB-best 135 walks. Among the more than 2,300 players in MLB history with at least 2,500 plate appearances, Soto ranks 20th with a .950 OPS—slightly ahead of Jeff Bagwell and Mel Ott; slightly behind Jim Thome and Todd Helton.
Soto is not a great defender in right field, so it might not be long before he becomes more or less a full-time DH. Which is fine. David Ortiz certainly made it work, and primarily serving as a designated hitter hasn't decreased Yordan Alvarez's value. But it's something for a franchise to have in mind when making what might be a 12-year, $450 million investment in Soto.
Other Candidates: Pete Alonso, Tim Anderson, Alex Bregman
Top Free-Agent Pitcher After 2024: Corbin Burnes
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The 2024 crop of starting pitchers hitting free agency is ridiculously loaded, but the cream of that crop has got to be Corbin Burnes.
Since becoming a full-time starter three years ago, Burnes has a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while averaging 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. He won the NL Cy Young Award in 2021 with a ludicrous FIP of 1.63. He also finished top seven in that vote in both 2020 and 2022.
Burnes did get touched up for 23 home runs in 2022 after allowing just seven in the entire 2021 campaign. But he still racked up more than 10 strikeouts for every home run allowed, and 15 of those dingers came with the bases empty, keeping the damage to a minimum.
Had he hit free agency this offseason, he likely would have gotten something similar to the nine-year, $324 million contract that Gerrit Cole received during the 2019-20 season.
He's slightly younger now than Cole was then, and Burnes' numbers over the past two seasons are nearly identical to what Cole posted in 2018-19, save for Cole having slightly higher strikeout and walk rates.
If Burnes can maintain his current level of dominance for another two seasons, he's going to get a monster deal, likely in excess of $35 million per season. (Translation: He won't still be pitching for Milwaukee in 2025.)
Other Candidates: Shane Bieber, Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Glasnow, John Means
Top Free-Agent Hitter After 2025: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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It's hard to believe that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still only 23 and is still another three years away from hitting free agency.
Maybe it's partially because his dad was so productive for so long, but between leading the majors in home runs while battling Shohei Ohtani for AL MVP in 2021 and the ridiculous show that he put on in the 2019 Home Run Derby, it feels like Guerrero has been in the majors for a long time.
However, Toronto still has about 1,000 days to figure out how much it's going to cost to lock up its two-time All-Star first baseman for the long haul.
This past season, Guerrero had a three-homer gem against the Yankees less than a week into the campaign before rather quietly putting together 32 dingers and 97 runs batted in. Five Blue Jays amassed at least 24 and 76, respectively, but Guerrero led the squad in both categories, this after going for 48 and 111 the prior season.
Guerrero is tied with Ohtani for the second-most homers in the majors over the past two seasons, trailing only Aaron Judge in that department.
Had he been available as a free agent this winter, Guerrero likely would have gotten something in the vicinity of the 15-year, $440 million offer Washington made to Juan Soto. And the longer that Toronto waits to extend him, the more expensive it's going to get.
Other Candidates: Bryan Reynolds, Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Cedric Mullins
Top Free-Agent Pitcher After 2025: Dylan Cease
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As is the case in 2024, there are a bunch of solid candidates for big pitching contracts after the 2025 campaign.
But we will again go with an ace who has tallied at least 225 strikeouts in each of the past two seasons.
In this case, we're talking about Dylan Cease, who would have won the AL Cy Young in 2022 had it not been for 39-year-old Justin Verlander leading the majors in both ERA and WHIP in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.
Hard to contend with that, but Cease put up a solid fight, posting a 2.20 ERA while striking out better than 30 percent of batters faced. That came after he struck out 31.9 percent of batters faced in 2021.
One big concern with Cease is the walks. He led the majors with 78 free passes in 2022 and has averaged 4.0 walks per nine innings pitched in his four-year career. Among the 69 pitchers with at least 400 innings pitched since the beginning of 2019, Cease has the worst walk rate.
Between that and his high K rate, pitch count can get out of hand in a hurry. Cease has pitched into the seventh inning in just 13 of his 90 career starts.
But if he can continue to limit damage like he did in 2022, who cares if he's routinely out before the seventh? Someone will pay big bucks to let Cease give them five or six strong innings every five or six days.
Other Candidates: Logan Webb, Cristian Javier, Michael Kopech, Dustin May, Zac Gallen, Nestor Cortes
Top Free-Agent Hitter After 2026: Eloy Jiménez
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With a strong honorable mention to Cleveland Guardians middle infielder Andrés Giménez—who finished sixth in the 2022 AL MVP vote just one year removed from batting .218 and spending several months in Triple-A—the hitter most likely to sign a megadeal in free agency four years from now is Eloy Jiménez.
However, that will depend on his ability to stay healthy for a change.
When he's able to play, Jiménez has been a star. He hit 31 home runs in 122 games played as a rookie in 2019. For his career, he's slugging .504 with 162-game paces of 36 home runs and 108 RBI. To put those numbers in context, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is sitting at .504, 33 and 100, respectively.
But Guerrero—who made his MLB debut nearly a month after Jiménez—has played in 188 more games than the young star of the White Sox.
Between a pectoral tear, a bruised knee and a significant hamstring injury, Jiménez has played in just 139 games over the past two seasons combined. And if that trend continues, he might actually hit free agency before 2026, as the White Sox could be reluctant to pick up the $16.5 million club option for 2025 and/or the $18.5 million club option for 2026.
With any luck, though, he'll have a relatively clean bill of health for the next four years before signing a gigantic contract, possibly on his 30th birthday (Nov. 27, 2026).
Other Candidates: Andrés Giménez, Andrew Vaughn, Alejandro Kirk, Dylan Carlson, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Daulton Varsho, Randy Arozarena
Top Free-Agent Picher After 2026: Kyle Wright
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Of the bunch, this post-2026 pitcher class is easily the least intriguing as a whole.
But there's ample time for currently unproven commodities to have breakout seasons on par with what Kyle Wright gave Atlanta in 2022.
From 2018 to '21, Wright logged 70 big league innings with a 6.56 ERA. He did make a massive relief appearance in Game 4 of the 2021 World Series, but there was little to suggest that the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft was gearing up for some Cy Young votes in 2022.
Wright led the majors with 21 wins, giving Atlanta a 3.19 ERA during the regular season. He proceeded to pitch six shutout innings in his only start of the postseason.
Because both Max Fried and Spencer Strider had even better seasons, Wright's big year flew below the national radar a bit. But if he can double down with another strong campaign in 2023, he should be next on the list of players that Alex Anthopoulos somehow signs to a long-term, team-friendly extension long before hitting free agency.
Don't sleep on Cleveland Guardians pitcher Triston McKenzie being the bigger name by 2026, though. He wasn't named an All-Star, nor did he receive any Cy Young votes in 2022, but he made 31 appearances with a 2.96 ERA a 0.95 WHIP and an 8.9 K/9. He and Shane Bieber were the co-aces of that AL Central-winning rotation.
Other Candidates: Triston McKenzie, Tarik Skubal, José Berríos (player option)
Top Free-Agent Hitter After 2027: Jeremy Peña
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At the end of the regular season, we likely would have gone with either Adley Rutschman or Bobby Witt Jr. in this spot.
Per FanGraphs, the Orioles catcher was one of the 10 most valuable players in the majors after making his debut in late May. And while the Royals infielder didn't quite have the AL Rookie of the Year campaign that was anticipated in the preseason, he did rack up 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
Both will be hot commodities during the 2027-28 offseason, assuming neither of those small-market franchises find a way to sign those soon-to-be All-Stars to long-term deals.
But then Jeremy Peña triple-slashed .345/.367/.638 during the postseason and was named both the ALCS MVP and World Series MVP.
Now it feels like a foregone conclusion that the shortstop who replaced Carlos Correa in Houston will also one day supplant Correa in career earnings.
That could, of course, change in a big way in the next five years. No one could have guessed a few years ago that 2017 NL ROY and 2019 NL MVP Cody Bellinger would drop so far off a cliff that he would get non-tendered by the Dodgers prior to his final season of arbitration eligibility.
However, between the 22 regular-season home runs, the Gold Glove and the fantastic showing in the postseason, Peña is at least on an early trajectory to get one of those massive deals that were given to shortstops this winter.
Other Candidates: Adley Rutschman, Bobby Witt Jr., Ozzie Albies, Luis Robert
Top Free-Agent Pitcher After 2027: Hunter Greene
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The post-2026 pitching class looks a bit lackluster, but goodness gracious is the post-2027 pitching class loaded.
There's reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara hitting free agency at the age of 33, as well as 2022 All-Stars Alek Manoah and Shane McClanahan, not to mention the likes of MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, Shane Baz and Logan Gilbert.
But the most intriguing of the bunch is flame-throwing Hunter Greene.
His rookie season was all over the map. Some nights, he couldn't find the strike zone. On others, he couldn't keep the ball in the yard. When he was locked in, though, it was some kind of special.
Greene went 7.1 hitless innings against the Pirates in May, threw a one-hit, seven-inning shutout of the Diamondbacks in June, and had a 0.62 ERA and a 14.0 K/9 over his final five starts of the season.
His talent is undeniable. It's just a question of whether he can A) stay healthy and B) get to a point where the gems outweigh the duds.
Other Candidates: Shane McClanahan, Alek Manoah, Sandy Alcantara
Projecting the Top MLB Free-Agent Contracts for the Next 5 Offseasons - Bleacher Report
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